Daniel Berman

Degrees in History, Politics and Iranian Studies. Wrote in the past for http://Fivethirtyeight.com. https://twitter.com/DanielBerman2

Reflections on the on the fate of the Republic

The events at the US Capitol were not a victory for the Constitution or for Congress. Like most failed coups, the winners were political actors other than the protagonists.

January 21, 2021
January 22, 2021
Written by 
Daniel Berman

We have a deal!

That the UK and the European Union concluded a trade agreement is far from any triumph of diplomatic skill. The real significance of Brexit lays in what the process revealed about both sides.

December 27, 2020
January 21, 2021
Written by 
Daniel Berman

What if there was an election and no one cared? Venezuela's Opposition goes out with a whimper

Official turnout in Sunday's Venezuelan National Assembly election was a paltry 31% indicating that Maduro and his ruling PSUV did not even have to bother to rig. The opposition had all but ceased to exist beforehand.

December 8, 2020
December 9, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

A Deal at what cost?

Rumors of a breakdown in talks at the last moment between the UK and the EU in the past have been the prelude to the announcement of a new deal, it is unclear why this time should be different.

December 6, 2020
December 7, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Present at the Restoration

Joe Biden's National Security team represents a belief that the Trump years were an aberration. It was the same conclusion Obama's incoming drew in 2009 regarding the Bush years.

November 24, 2020
December 5, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Which Polls are right? Thoughts on the state of the race

After 2016. it was a given that skepticism would exist about Presidential polling. That uncertainty has manifested in two polling universes. One show ing a close EC race and a 3-4 point Biden lead and the other a blowout

October 7, 2020
November 3, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

A War No One Wants

The Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict has not only set back the development of both states, it has crippled the economic and political ambition of Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the West in the region. Yet it continues.

October 4, 2020
October 5, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Present at One's Own Funeral: David Cameron's Memoirs

There is one character missing from David Cameron's memoirs, whose motives, thoughts, and feelings remain a mystery after hundreds of pages. The author

September 15, 2020
September 17, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Great Laziness: "The Great" Abandons Historical Accuracy for a Less Compelling and Backwards Fiction

Deviations from the historical record are common in entertainment. What is less common is deviations which make the past appear more backwards socially and less interesting dramatically.

May 23, 2020
May 23, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Covid19: Where I am watching the numbers? - Updated Daily(Latest 4/27/2020)

For all the focus on Covid19 in Europe and the United States, it is the rise in cases and deaths outside of those continents which poses a longer-term threat to a quick economic recovery

April 11, 2020
May 1, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

How the Outbreak of the Corona-virus in Iran May Cause a Geopolitical Earthquake

All signs point to an uncontrolled outbreak of Ncov19 among Iran's political and military elite. The virus has the potential to not just topple the Iranian regime but reshape the Middle East.

February 26, 2020
February 26, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Merkel Alone: Merkel's System is Sturdy But Lacks a Future

The resignation of Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauern was not a blow to the Chancellor per se. Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer had already failed. But it raises questions whether anyone else can continue it.

February 10, 2020
February 10, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Real Problem with the Democratic Race is not Ideology but Boredom

After years of 24/7 crisis coverage by MSNBC and CNN, and complex intercene squabbles on left twitter, the Democrats have produced the most insider-friendly campaign in history. No wonder the public is tuning out

February 6, 2020
February 6, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Why Republican Should Be Wary of Bernie Sanders

Republicans are eager to face Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders this fall, but should be wary of rushing into a manichean battle against Socialism without the proper groundwork having been laid

February 5, 2020
February 5, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

A Way out of the Brexit Impasse

Discussion has focused on Parliament's passage of legislation outlawing "No Deal" in terms of British domestic politics. But by allowing the EU to submit extensions to a Commons vote it opens a different option.

September 6, 2019
September 15, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Jeremy Corbyn Holds No Deal in His Hands

A majority in Parliament probably will be able to stop a No Deal Brexit and almost everyone assumes it will. But all such assumptions rest on Jeremy Corbyn cooperating. The real question is why should he?

June 15, 2019
July 17, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Only Way for the Conservatives to Win on Brexit is to Lose

There is a lack of reality about the Conservative leadership contest that goes beyond basic math or parliamentary arithmetic. No one considers what they hope Brexit will accomplish.

June 11, 2019
June 15, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Brexit at High Tide: Remain is winning the Guerilla War on Brexit

The Brexit Party won the 2019 European Elections in the United Kingdom, but Brexit as a cause lost. By failing to breakthrough outside traditional right-wing voter circles, all incentive for Labour to back Brexit is gone

May 29, 2019
May 29, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Thoughts on the European Elections Part 1: Europe Wide

It was not a good night for the far-right in Europe or Brexiteers in the UK, but it was nowhere near as much of a success for their opponents as some seem to believe.

May 28, 2019
May 28, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Theresa May united her party in the end

Theresa May's resignation represents not Conservative divisions over Brexit, but an increasing consensus. Whatever the merits of the policy, the Tories must go down as the party of Brexit.

May 24, 2019
September 14, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Farcical Self-Inflicted Disaster that is the Venezuelan Opposition

The Venezuelan opposition's efforts to remove Maduro have done more than anything else to ensure his continued survival, and Juan Guaido's bid for power is a farce that is in danger for transforming into tragedy

May 2, 2019
November 25, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Parliament Fiddles, While Remainers Push Britain Towards the Cliff

Steve Baker may have not been at his most reflective when he lashed out at the House of Commons' grandstanding over indicative votes, but he was absolutely right to describe it as pantomime carried out by cowards.

March 28, 2019
March 28, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The EU Gives the UK a Final Chance to Determine its Fate

The results of the EU Summit on March 21-22 were a major humiliation to Theresa May, as the EU bypassed her to issue an ultimatum directly to the UK Parliament. But they did so with little hope it would be taken up.

March 22, 2019
March 23, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The EU Contemplates Letting the UK Fall Off the Cliff

While I still believe the UK is headed for a long Article 50 extension, I increasingly feel the EU is contemplating the prospect of a "Temporary No Deal" to remove the threat of an A50 revocation and teach a lesson

March 20, 2019
July 17, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Vice: A 120 Minute Trip Into An Alternate History Mytopia

Someone, someday, should try to make a biopic about Richard Cheney. Vice, by contrast, is a satircal film about how its director and intended see American politics. Conspiratorial, incomprehensible, and tainted.

February 15, 2019
February 17, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Brexit Endgame December: A Choice of Poison

The decision to pull the vote on her proposed agreement with the EU may have saved Theresa May a defeat in the Commons, but it may have forfeited a chance to force a confronation with the bankrupcy of almost all options

December 11, 2018
January 15, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Brexit Endgame November

With a "deal" imminant, Theresa May faces the likihood of defeat in the Commons as MPs of all stripes vote for Schrodinger's rejection. But Jeremy Corbyn, not Remainers or Leavers, , holds almost all the card

November 12, 2018
November 12, 2018
Written by 
Daniel Berman

What does the EU think it is doing on the Kosovo-Serbian border agreement?

Germany has a long tradition of adopting stubborn stands in the Balkans out of misplaced principle leading to disaster, from 1914 to 1991. But the opposition to a land swap between Kosovo and Serbia is truly absurd

September 4, 2018
September 4, 2018
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Merkel, and the avoidable migration political crisis within the EU

Critics are right to suggest that the current fight over migration is motivated as much by political ambitions as security threats. But Angela Merkel has done more than anyone else to make it that way

July 2, 2018
July 2, 2018
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Why the US Congress is Headed to a Shutdown over DACA

It is an article of faith among the American political elite that the DACA program is universally popular and a political winner for Democrats. That premise is being put to the test this week.

January 18, 2018
February 2, 2018
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Polling, Media Narratives and the Virginia Governor's race

The temptation for journalists to focus on the "horse race" of campaigns has always existed, but few have seen their coverage as totally determined by the results of questionable polls than today's Virginia elections

November 7, 2017
November 7, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

How to lose a constitutional struggle 101

The inexplicable inaction of the Catalonian government following the referendum vote shifted the political initiatative back to the Spanish government, and has left seccesionists divided and demoralized

October 31, 2017
October 31, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

"Both Sides are in the Wrong" Seccesionist Gamesmanship in Spain and the Myth of Excessive Force

The Spanish government was in a no situation with regards to the Catalan referendum. Precedent showed that allowing it to proceed would have established its legitimacy, whereas enforcing the law was a PR disaster

October 3, 2017
October 3, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Fatal Lack of Republican Messaging on Healthcare

A flaw of Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare has been a lack of agreement on why they are doing so. With the most recent effort, there seems to have been a abandonment of even trying to claim healthcare will improve

September 21, 2017
November 25, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

European Elections 2017: The Far-Right recedes?

Upcoming elections in Austria, Germany, and Norway appear likely to be dissapointments for the far-right. But with the exception of Norway, this owes more to a resurgence of the center-right than a leftward swing

September 3, 2017
September 3, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The cult of Robert E. Lee and may have served its purpose, but we need an alternative not erasure

The criticisms of the cult of the Confederacy in the South, that it excludes African Americans and minimizes the crimes of slavery are beyond a doubt true. But critics seem more interested in destroying idols than unity.

August 25, 2017
October 31, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Interesting Numbers in Venezuala

Venezuela's recent Constituent Assembly elections were a mockery, but so is every other aspect of governance in the country at this point. The struggle is no longer about ideology, but rather power.

July 31, 2017
July 31, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Overdue Decision to Cut America's Losses in Syria

US aid to the Syrian opposition never had a political objective, and therefore lacked any viable military goals as well. The decision of the Trump Adminstration to terminate it will be spun as Pro-Russian, but is overdue

July 22, 2017
July 22, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The "Soft Brexit" myth: If "Hard Brexit" is off the table, the UK should withdraw Article 50

It is now clear that on Brexit there is no "deal" to be made. If British voters truly value immigration control more than economics they need to be prepared to walk. And if they value economics, "Soft Brexit" is a fraud

June 29, 2017
June 29, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Thoughts on the 2017 UK General Election

The implications of the Conservative government of Theresa May losing its majority in the House of Commons on June 9th, 2017 have dominated media discourse. Momentous enough, exageration has taken the place of analysis

June 14, 2017
June 14, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Iran's Other Elections

For all the focus on Rouhani's reelection as President, the real shift in Iran happened downballot a delayed effect of how important the transfer of the Presidency in 2013 actually was despite the limitations.

May 22, 2017
May 22, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Closing the Gap? The UK Elections 14 Days Out

Even before last nights YouGov and Survation polls the gap was already closing between Labour and the Tories. The dynamics of the campaign made this inevitable, just as they ensure the tough part lies ahead for Corbyn

May 20, 2017
May 21, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

28 Days out: The UK 2017 Elections

The first of several looks at the polling, campaigns, and dynamics of the UK 2017 election..

May 12, 2017
May 12, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

General Jackson is Dead Sir

Recent comments about the Civil War have reopened a debate that wrongly focuses on "what the Civil War was about?" rather than the more interesting question of why it had to be fought.

May 2, 2017
February 2, 2018
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Worst of Timing: Why Scotland's Second Bid for Independence Will Earn a Cold Shoulder From the EU

The decision of the Scottish Government to seek a second referendum is a gamble that the panic surrounding Brexit will disguise the fact that the prospects for an independent Scotland are worse than in 2014

March 16, 2017
March 27, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

A Feature, Not a Bug: Why May is using the status of EU Nationals to tempt her enemies into destruction

Theresa May's stubborness on the right of EU nationals to remain in the UK will force hard choices on many MPs. That is precisely why the Prime Minister is so insistent on doing it.

March 8, 2017
March 8, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Why not break up Bosnia?

Twenty years after it successfully ended a war, the Dayton structure has failed miserably at building a stable and united Bosnia in peace. Why not allow the state to split up?

February 27, 2017
February 27, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Germany's Boring Election: Is Merkel's Reserve of Political Lives Growing Short?

As Germans prepare to go to the polls, the greatest threat to Angela Merkel is neither anger over her asylum policy, nor populism of the right or left. Nor even is it new SPD leader Martin Schulz. It is boredom itself

February 13, 2017
February 13, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Symbiotic Polarization: How Intersectionality Birthed the Alt-Right

For all the venom directed at "Facists" by leftwing activists throughout history, the truly revolutionary forces on the right have always taken their inspirationn from the example set by their leftwing counterparts

February 9, 2017
February 9, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Politics of TPP and Mexico City

By connecting killing TPP and the reinstatement of the Mexico City Policy on abortion, the Trump Adminstration handed orginized labor their greatest politican win in decades while ensuring foes would only talk abortion

January 24, 2017
May 12, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

When did Obama abandon the Syrian opposition? And why did he never let his UN Ambassador know it?

For all the talk of an Obama-doctrine giving way to a Pro-Russian Trump policy, the shift back to realism already occured during the Syrian conflict.

January 22, 2017
January 22, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Old Statesman Merely Fade Away: Ali Akbar Rafsanjani 1934-2017

The dominant figure in Iran following Khomeini's death in 1989, Rafsanjani tried to build a political order on personality rather than ideology or policy and found himself adrift and distrusted by all sides.

January 10, 2017
September 14, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

In defense of the choice of David Friedman as Ambassador to Israel and Trump's new policy

It needs to be accepted that the Peace Process in Israel is currently comotose and will remain so until it is recognized that any settlement will have to be on Israel's terms or the result of military force.

December 20, 2016
December 20, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Syrian Endgame

The events in Aleppo are tragic, but they are also the inevitible result of a policy based on moral outrage rather than strategic calculation, or even an effort to limit human suffering.

December 14, 2016
December 14, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

2016: The Year History Ended

A decade ago it was common for neoconservative thinkers to claim that 9/11 marked the end of the "End of History" that began with the end of the Cold War. With hindsight, it merely marked the midpoint.

November 21, 2016
September 14, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Where Predictions went wrong

It is easy to blame this election on the polls, but looking back, everyone took for granted that voters who supported John Kerry and then Obama twice would never vote for Donald Trump. And no evidence could shake that.

November 11, 2016
November 11, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Initial Thoughts on the Brexit Rulling

The High Court ruling is a defeat for the May government, but it is a defeat that if they did not actually court, nevertheless serves their interests very well.

November 3, 2016
November 3, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Hillary's Health Non-Issue

Clinton's campaign has issues, but her health is the factor least likely to turn the election in Trump's favor.

September 12, 2016
November 25, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Problem With Debates About Russian Expansionism: A Historical Consideration of Empire and Russian Foriegn Policy

What the West sees as Russian expansionism into Europe in fact represents a dillema no Russian leader mas managed to solve in three centuries. How ensure that its neghbors are not anti-Russian absent occupation.

September 2, 2016
September 3, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

America After Both Trump and Clinton

Forget the focus on where the Republican party goes after a Trump defeat. The party remains poised for 2018 gains, and only a presidential victory in 2020 may stand between it and the power wielded in Poland or Hungary.

August 24, 2016
November 25, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Trump's Post-Convention Implosion: The real damage Trump is inflicting on the GOP is to deny it a message

The sheer randomness of the Trump campaign has hitherto innoculated the candidate against any individual offense. But his own heresies have prevented the wider party from finding any sort of message in 2016.

August 4, 2016
November 25, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Hitting Trump on Russia cannot disguise the fact that Clinton does not have a Russia policy.

The attempt to turn the leak of emails from the Democratic National Committee into a debate over whether Trump is "soft" on Russia or Putin is exactly the sort of inflexible thinking that has ruined US policy in Syria.

July 30, 2016
February 17, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The boring Republican National Convention and the uneventful presidential campaign

One of the most interesting Presidential primaries in history has given way to one of the least eventful general election campaigns, something that Clinton has no reason to change, and likely will not until the debates.

July 20, 2016
November 25, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

More July 20th 1944 than Reichstag Fire: Thoughts on the seriousness of the Turkish coup

The complexity of Friday's has led to a focus on whether or not the coup was somehow "staged".That is to miss the importance of how politics in Turkey has become about one man, and effective opposition about killing him.

July 16, 2016
July 19, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Fiasco: How the Brexit Coup Failed

If Brexit was a coup, then it must stand alongside the August 1991 effort in Moscow as one of worst fiascos in history. In the end, it entrenched those already in power, and left their enemies prostrate before them.

July 12, 2016
July 13, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

What if there was an election, and it was about nothing at all? The issue free Labour leadership contest.

Not since the 2004 Democratic Presidential Primaries has there been an election as devoid of issues as the Labour Leadership contest. The result has been to present an image of a party wracked by personal feuds.

July 11, 2016
July 13, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

One of Them: Why the "Remainer" Theresa May is winning the Conservative leadership

Seeing Conservative leadership race in terms of Leavers v. Remainers misses the point. Theresa May might have backed Remain, but on a tribal level Leavers know she is one of them in a way Gove or Johnson never could be.

July 4, 2016
July 4, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Politics is not a drama: Michael Gove's failed bid

Michael Gove may have acted out a real life episode of House of Cards, but the net effect of his manuevers is likely to the eclipse of his own career.

July 3, 2016
July 5, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Labour's Leadership Election

In the circumstances that currently prevail, it strikes me aas a deeply unwise move for Jeremy Corbyn's foes to force a battle to the death over an issue, the EU referendum, regarding which they themselves lack a policy

June 27, 2016
July 4, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

American Brexit - Putting the Referendum in American Context

To understand how the British electorate could disregard the advice of the entire politicana and economic elite to vote to leave the EU, imagine if Donald Trump's immigration proposals were put up for a vote in America.

June 24, 2016
July 1, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Sovereignty, Spite and Timing: Why someone who agrees with many of the arguments for Leave, would still vote to Remain

Brexit would be a disaster. Which is why it is sad that the Remain has done everything in its power to make me root for British voters to cast their ballots for Leave.

June 21, 2016
June 30, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Venezuela Update

Venezuela's problems are as much political as they are economic, and the opposition has unwisely accepted the government's narrative that politics is a struggle to the death.

June 18, 2016
December 9, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

On Demonization, "Elites", and Jo Cox

Jo Cox's murder takes place within the environment of a bitter referendum campaign, but also needs to be placed within a wider context of demonization of entire classes of individuals.

June 18, 2016
July 1, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Trump, Clinton, Sanders, and the failure to learn anything so far this year

Clinton has a surplus of material with which to attack Trump. It is unclear why she thought it would be wise to begin by highlighting his lack of popularity among the DC Establishment.

May 19, 2016
February 5, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The rotten three legs of the stool: Donald Trump didn't destroy American Conservatism, it was rotten to the core

Donald Trump's victory did not represent a defeat for American conservatism. By the time he arrived, it had already ideologically defeated itself. He found himself pushing on an open door.

May 9, 2016
February 6, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The United States and the EU Referendum

Regardless of what the proper American policy should be, Barack Obama's intervention in the EU referendum campaign was almost certainly a mistake. For him, for David Cameron, and for both countries.

April 25, 2016
May 12, 2017
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Why Attacks on Trump's Foriegn Policy Views Backfire

Donald Trump's foes have repeatedly tried to make light of his ideological heresies. Nowhere has this been more blatent than with regard to his foriegn policy views, and nowhere have such efforts been less successful.

March 28, 2016
February 2, 2018
Written by 
Daniel Berman

David Cameron's Dangerous Few Months

The first weeks of the EU referendum campaign have not gone according to plan from the perspective of Prime Minister David Cameron. What was intended to undermine his rivals has instead strengthened them, dangerously so.

March 21, 2016
July 2, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Thoughts on the February 25th Republican Debate

Last night Marco Rubio continued his strategy of endeavoring to place himself to Donald Trump's right, a strategy whose purpose is open to question even if it could credibly be carried out.

February 26, 2016
November 25, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Post-Debate Thoughts: Forget Trump, Rubio Needs a Message and a 21st Century Campaign Team

Anyone wondering why Trump is winning the GOP primary could have turned into the last debate to be enlightened on why his opponents are losing. And why Rubio, despite accolades is not ready for primetime.

January 29, 2016
November 25, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Slow, extended death throws of America's Syria policy

The death of another Syrian rebel "leader" highlights the extent to which Western policy towards Syria increasingly running on sheer inertia with not clear objectives or end goals.

December 26, 2015
July 2, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Transitions are Hard: Zimbabwe and Venezuala

The recent victory of the opposition alliance in elections for Venezuala's National Assembly provides both the possibility of change, and the danger that politics will now move into a struggle to the death.

December 8, 2015
July 13, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Russian intervention just highlights how the West still lacks a Syria Policy

The confused reaction to the clash between Moscow and Ankara is a testement to how the West's goals in Syria have become so confused that contradictory policies are being pursued simultanously.

October 8, 2015
July 2, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Republican Nomination in October

The summer continued a trend of events that if properly exploited, a bit "if", may well make Marco Rubio one of the luckiest men in American politics.

October 6, 2015
November 25, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

You should not fear Corbyn because he opposes Trident Now, but because he did so in the 1980s

Viewing the renewel of the Trident system as a waste of money should not be disqualifying for Corbyn. What should be is his opposition to Britain's independent deterent in the 1980s when there was good reason for it

September 13, 2015
July 1, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Left-Wing Economic Views are not Jeremy Corbyn's Real Problem

It his seeming associations with enemies of the United Kingdom and eccentric views on migration, rather than his fetish for nationalization, which are likely to pose the most problems for Labour under Corbyn's leadership

July 26, 2015
July 1, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Eurogroup and SYRIZA's Cowardly Referendum

When looking back at the handling of Greece since 2008, it is unlikely anyone will emerge covered in glory. But when measured by such standards, the behavior of everyone involved in Greece's referendum is abominable

June 29, 2015
July 13, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

American History, Southern Identity, and the Politics of Race

If there has been one consistent aspect of racial controversies in American politics, it is that much like joining ISIS, the effort is almost certain to end in a suicide bombing, or the political equivalent.

June 26, 2015
February 5, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Bernie Sanders' Demographic Challenge

Whatever his success in winning over online activists, Bernie Sanders faces the same obstacle as any left-wing insurgent in the Democratic party; winning over non-white voters who care more about winning in November.

June 16, 2015
July 2, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Labour's Strategic Problem

Labour supporters may be right to blame fears of a possible coalition with the SNP for costing them power in May. But with the SNP dominant in Scotland, it is not a problem likely to go away anytime soon.

June 12, 2015
July 1, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

On Echo Chambers and Politics: Labour picks the wrong fight over the EU referendum

The decision to champion the cause of EU citizens resident in the UK to vote in any referendum on EU membership illustrates the challenges Labour has in culturally connecting with voters within its own heartlands.

May 28, 2015
July 2, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Labour's Cultural Obliviousness: Responding to Public Concerns on Immigration and the EU

Rather than figuring out why the voters did not want to hire them, the Labour party seems determined to complain about the fantasy of hiriing a different set of voters.

May 12, 2015
July 2, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Slavery and the Origins of the American Civil War: A Rebuttle to Libertarian Revisionism

There have been repeated efforts to recast the Civil War as a conflict over the constitutional relationship between states and the federal government. Ultimately, however, those issues all related to slavery.

April 13, 2015
November 1, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Amazing Shrinking Palestinian National Issue

The recent Israeli elections are a testement to the degree to which the Palestinian issue has become an afterthought even for Israelis. And that is worrysome for Israel's relations with Europe.

March 22, 2015
July 2, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

The Third Stage of Grief: The Dukakis-esque Premise of the Walker Campaign

Republicans rushing to embrace Scott Walker's campaign are betting that 2008 and 2012 were outliers, and that the winning strategy in 2016 requires nothing further than to not run against Barack Obama.

March 5, 2015
February 6, 2020
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Despite Cease-Fire Failures, American Weapons are not a Solution

Whatever policy is the right one to adopt regarding the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the assumption that arming the Ukrainian military is either a simple task, or an alternative to direct interevention is absurd.

February 22, 2015
July 13, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Let's Talk Oil Prices: Rebutting Myths about the Price Collaspe

There is no grand Saudi "conspiracy" against shale production behind the fall in oil prices. Ultimately, the commodity collaspe is a byproduct of the Chinese slowdown along with short-sighted decisions by producers.

December 22, 2014
July 1, 2016
Written by 
Daniel Berman

Comrade Bob's Final Victory: Mugabe's Succession and Zimbabwe

The recent struggle for succession in Zimbabwe is a remainder that informal networks of power will almost always prevail over formal constitutional procedure in non-democratic states.

December 15, 2014
September 14, 2019
Written by 
Daniel Berman