My writing on international affairs which does not focus on domestic politics within countries. Whether it is US policy towards Syria, nuclear diplomacy with Iran, or Russia’s relations with the rest of the world you can find it here.
Reflections on the on the fate of the Republic
The events at the US Capitol were not a victory for the Constitution or for Congress. Like most failed coups, the winners were political actors other than the protagonists.
A War No One Wants
The Armenian-Azerbaijan conflict has not only set back the development of both states, it has crippled the economic and political ambition of Turkey, Russia, Iran, and the West in the region. Yet it continues.
The Farcical Self-Inflicted Disaster that is the Venezuelan Opposition
The Venezuelan opposition's efforts to remove Maduro have done more than anything else to ensure his continued survival, and Juan Guaido's bid for power is a farce that is in danger for transforming into tragedy
Brexit Endgame November
With a "deal" imminant, Theresa May faces the likihood of defeat in the Commons as MPs of all stripes vote for Schrodinger's rejection. But Jeremy Corbyn, not Remainers or Leavers, , holds almost all the card
What does the EU think it is doing on the Kosovo-Serbian border agreement?
Germany has a long tradition of adopting stubborn stands in the Balkans out of misplaced principle leading to disaster, from 1914 to 1991. But the opposition to a land swap between Kosovo and Serbia is truly absurd
How to lose a constitutional struggle 101
The inexplicable inaction of the Catalonian government following the referendum vote shifted the political initiatative back to the Spanish government, and has left seccesionists divided and demoralized
"Both Sides are in the Wrong" Seccesionist Gamesmanship in Spain and the Myth of Excessive Force
The Spanish government was in a no situation with regards to the Catalan referendum. Precedent showed that allowing it to proceed would have established its legitimacy, whereas enforcing the law was a PR disaster
The Worst of Timing: Why Scotland's Second Bid for Independence Will Earn a Cold Shoulder From the EU
The decision of the Scottish Government to seek a second referendum is a gamble that the panic surrounding Brexit will disguise the fact that the prospects for an independent Scotland are worse than in 2014
Why not break up Bosnia?
Twenty years after it successfully ended a war, the Dayton structure has failed miserably at building a stable and united Bosnia in peace. Why not allow the state to split up?
Germany's Boring Election: Is Merkel's Reserve of Political Lives Growing Short?
As Germans prepare to go to the polls, the greatest threat to Angela Merkel is neither anger over her asylum policy, nor populism of the right or left. Nor even is it new SPD leader Martin Schulz. It is boredom itself
Symbiotic Polarization: How Intersectionality Birthed the Alt-Right
For all the venom directed at "Facists" by leftwing activists throughout history, the truly revolutionary forces on the right have always taken their inspirationn from the example set by their leftwing counterparts
2016: The Year History Ended
A decade ago it was common for neoconservative thinkers to claim that 9/11 marked the end of the "End of History" that began with the end of the Cold War. With hindsight, it merely marked the midpoint.
More July 20th 1944 than Reichstag Fire: Thoughts on the seriousness of the Turkish coup
The complexity of Friday's has led to a focus on whether or not the coup was somehow "staged".That is to miss the importance of how politics in Turkey has become about one man, and effective opposition about killing him.
The United States and the EU Referendum
Regardless of what the proper American policy should be, Barack Obama's intervention in the EU referendum campaign was almost certainly a mistake. For him, for David Cameron, and for both countries.
Transitions are Hard: Zimbabwe and Venezuala
The recent victory of the opposition alliance in elections for Venezuala's National Assembly provides both the possibility of change, and the danger that politics will now move into a struggle to the death.
The Eurogroup and SYRIZA's Cowardly Referendum
When looking back at the handling of Greece since 2008, it is unlikely anyone will emerge covered in glory. But when measured by such standards, the behavior of everyone involved in Greece's referendum is abominable
Comrade Bob's Final Victory: Mugabe's Succession and Zimbabwe
The recent struggle for succession in Zimbabwe is a remainder that informal networks of power will almost always prevail over formal constitutional procedure in non-democratic states.
Hagel and the Return of the End of Realism
The resignation of Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel marks the final eclipse within the Obama Adminstration of those realist Republicans who defected during the last decade through disatisfaction with the Iraq war.
Repeating the Mistakes of 1936, Europe Risks Marginalizing Itself on the World Stage
International policy is about making choices about different priorities. In 1936, European powers failed to weigh the relative importance of Italy's alliance against Hitler with Ethiopia's independence and lost both.
Turkey after the Local Elections
The focus by the international media on the integrity of the results in Turkey's recent local elections detracts from the important lesson that while the AKP is politically mortal, the opposition remains fragmented.
A Look Back: Thoughts About Yugoslavia, Sovereignty, and Western Inaction
The prerequisite for any sort of effective action within the Ukraine is to decide whether Kiev is facing a domestic rebellion for an outside invasion. Failing to do so means confusing the lines about the use of force
How Turkey's Elections This Weekend are Tomorrow's Geopolitical Crisis
Turkey's local elections this weekend are the first occasion on which the ruling AKP party faces the prospect of a substantial loss of support. How they respond will determine the future of democracy in Turkey.
Majority rule: Turkey’s Taksim Gezi Park protestors must join the electoral process or perish
Turkey's opposition has to abandon fantasies of military coups and delusions that the AKP will implode while they do nothing in order to recognize that only broadening their appeal can they challenge Erdogan for power.
Minorities, the Politics of Proximity and Seccession
The "American" experience has often been cited as a successful counterpoint to unsuccessful efforts at assimilation elsewhere. But America's success may owe less to culture, and more to distance than is commonly assumed.