Analysis and thoughts regarding politics in my present country of residence.
We have a deal!
That the UK and the European Union concluded a trade agreement is far from any triumph of diplomatic skill. The real significance of Brexit lays in what the process revealed about both sides.
A Deal at what cost?
Rumors of a breakdown in talks at the last moment between the UK and the EU in the past have been the prelude to the announcement of a new deal, it is unclear why this time should be different.
Present at One's Own Funeral: David Cameron's Memoirs
There is one character missing from David Cameron's memoirs, whose motives, thoughts, and feelings remain a mystery after hundreds of pages. The author
A Way out of the Brexit Impasse
Discussion has focused on Parliament's passage of legislation outlawing "No Deal" in terms of British domestic politics. But by allowing the EU to submit extensions to a Commons vote it opens a different option.
Jeremy Corbyn Holds No Deal in His Hands
A majority in Parliament probably will be able to stop a No Deal Brexit and almost everyone assumes it will. But all such assumptions rest on Jeremy Corbyn cooperating. The real question is why should he?
The Only Way for the Conservatives to Win on Brexit is to Lose
There is a lack of reality about the Conservative leadership contest that goes beyond basic math or parliamentary arithmetic. No one considers what they hope Brexit will accomplish.
Brexit at High Tide: Remain is winning the Guerilla War on Brexit
The Brexit Party won the 2019 European Elections in the United Kingdom, but Brexit as a cause lost. By failing to breakthrough outside traditional right-wing voter circles, all incentive for Labour to back Brexit is gone
Theresa May united her party in the end
Theresa May's resignation represents not Conservative divisions over Brexit, but an increasing consensus. Whatever the merits of the policy, the Tories must go down as the party of Brexit.
Parliament Fiddles, While Remainers Push Britain Towards the Cliff
Steve Baker may have not been at his most reflective when he lashed out at the House of Commons' grandstanding over indicative votes, but he was absolutely right to describe it as pantomime carried out by cowards.
The EU Gives the UK a Final Chance to Determine its Fate
The results of the EU Summit on March 21-22 were a major humiliation to Theresa May, as the EU bypassed her to issue an ultimatum directly to the UK Parliament. But they did so with little hope it would be taken up.
The EU Contemplates Letting the UK Fall Off the Cliff
While I still believe the UK is headed for a long Article 50 extension, I increasingly feel the EU is contemplating the prospect of a "Temporary No Deal" to remove the threat of an A50 revocation and teach a lesson
Brexit Endgame December: A Choice of Poison
The decision to pull the vote on her proposed agreement with the EU may have saved Theresa May a defeat in the Commons, but it may have forfeited a chance to force a confronation with the bankrupcy of almost all options
Thoughts on the 2017 UK General Election
The implications of the Conservative government of Theresa May losing its majority in the House of Commons on June 9th, 2017 have dominated media discourse. Momentous enough, exageration has taken the place of analysis
Closing the Gap? The UK Elections 14 Days Out
Even before last nights YouGov and Survation polls the gap was already closing between Labour and the Tories. The dynamics of the campaign made this inevitable, just as they ensure the tough part lies ahead for Corbyn
28 Days out: The UK 2017 Elections
The first of several looks at the polling, campaigns, and dynamics of the UK 2017 election..
A Feature, Not a Bug: Why May is using the status of EU Nationals to tempt her enemies into destruction
Theresa May's stubborness on the right of EU nationals to remain in the UK will force hard choices on many MPs. That is precisely why the Prime Minister is so insistent on doing it.
Initial Thoughts on the Brexit Rulling
The High Court ruling is a defeat for the May government, but it is a defeat that if they did not actually court, nevertheless serves their interests very well.
Fiasco: How the Brexit Coup Failed
If Brexit was a coup, then it must stand alongside the August 1991 effort in Moscow as one of worst fiascos in history. In the end, it entrenched those already in power, and left their enemies prostrate before them.
What if there was an election, and it was about nothing at all? The issue free Labour leadership contest.
Not since the 2004 Democratic Presidential Primaries has there been an election as devoid of issues as the Labour Leadership contest. The result has been to present an image of a party wracked by personal feuds.
One of Them: Why the "Remainer" Theresa May is winning the Conservative leadership
Seeing Conservative leadership race in terms of Leavers v. Remainers misses the point. Theresa May might have backed Remain, but on a tribal level Leavers know she is one of them in a way Gove or Johnson never could be.
Politics is not a drama: Michael Gove's failed bid
Michael Gove may have acted out a real life episode of House of Cards, but the net effect of his manuevers is likely to the eclipse of his own career.
Labour's Leadership Election
In the circumstances that currently prevail, it strikes me aas a deeply unwise move for Jeremy Corbyn's foes to force a battle to the death over an issue, the EU referendum, regarding which they themselves lack a policy
Sovereignty, Spite and Timing: Why someone who agrees with many of the arguments for Leave, would still vote to Remain
Brexit would be a disaster. Which is why it is sad that the Remain has done everything in its power to make me root for British voters to cast their ballots for Leave.
On Demonization, "Elites", and Jo Cox
Jo Cox's murder takes place within the environment of a bitter referendum campaign, but also needs to be placed within a wider context of demonization of entire classes of individuals.
David Cameron's Dangerous Few Months
The first weeks of the EU referendum campaign have not gone according to plan from the perspective of Prime Minister David Cameron. What was intended to undermine his rivals has instead strengthened them, dangerously so.
You should not fear Corbyn because he opposes Trident Now, but because he did so in the 1980s
Viewing the renewel of the Trident system as a waste of money should not be disqualifying for Corbyn. What should be is his opposition to Britain's independent deterent in the 1980s when there was good reason for it
Left-Wing Economic Views are not Jeremy Corbyn's Real Problem
It his seeming associations with enemies of the United Kingdom and eccentric views on migration, rather than his fetish for nationalization, which are likely to pose the most problems for Labour under Corbyn's leadership
Labour's Strategic Problem
Labour supporters may be right to blame fears of a possible coalition with the SNP for costing them power in May. But with the SNP dominant in Scotland, it is not a problem likely to go away anytime soon.
On Echo Chambers and Politics: Labour picks the wrong fight over the EU referendum
The decision to champion the cause of EU citizens resident in the UK to vote in any referendum on EU membership illustrates the challenges Labour has in culturally connecting with voters within its own heartlands.
Labour's Cultural Obliviousness: Responding to Public Concerns on Immigration and the EU
Rather than figuring out why the voters did not want to hire them, the Labour party seems determined to complain about the fantasy of hiriing a different set of voters.
Thoughts on the Scottish Referendum Part 1: Polling
There are serious reasons to doubt the validity of the recent Yougov poll showing the Yes side ahead in Scotland's upcoming referendum on independence, not least as the lead appears to be a proudct of weighting.
The Obama-ization of British Politics: Why Labour Should be Wary of David Axelrod
In the rush to take advantage of the tactics that allowed Barack Obama to win the 2012 election, the Labour party may be forgetting how very different the two countries are, and setting itself up for a major defeat.
Cameron, UKIP, and the Lessons of Stanley Baldwin
In its appeal to populism, and relience on the support of press barons, the challenge UKIP poses to the Conservative party resembles earlier insurgency in which tight knit ideological groups sought to take over the party
The European Election Campaign Highlights the Political Failure of Remain
The European elections should have been a chance for those who supported Remaining in the EU to demonstrate popular support. Instead it seems to be highlighting their messaging failures.
Brexit Endgame: Why a Longterm Extension is More Likely than a No Deal Crashout
With the March 29th deadline set out in Article 50 approaching, all eyes in the UK press are on London. But the Westminster centered focus of the UK media ignores that British politicians are increasingly irrelevent