Predictions, analysis, and general thoughts about the state of American politics going back to the 2006 midterm elections.
Present at the Restoration
Joe Biden's National Security team represents a belief that the Trump years were an aberration. It was the same conclusion Obama's incoming drew in 2009 regarding the Bush years.
Which Polls are right? Thoughts on the state of the race
After 2016. it was a given that skepticism would exist about Presidential polling. That uncertainty has manifested in two polling universes. One show ing a close EC race and a 3-4 point Biden lead and the other a blowout
The Real Problem with the Democratic Race is not Ideology but Boredom
After years of 24/7 crisis coverage by MSNBC and CNN, and complex intercene squabbles on left twitter, the Democrats have produced the most insider-friendly campaign in history. No wonder the public is tuning out
Why Republican Should Be Wary of Bernie Sanders
Republicans are eager to face Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders this fall, but should be wary of rushing into a manichean battle against Socialism without the proper groundwork having been laid
Why the US Congress is Headed to a Shutdown over DACA
It is an article of faith among the American political elite that the DACA program is universally popular and a political winner for Democrats. That premise is being put to the test this week.
Polling, Media Narratives and the Virginia Governor's race
The temptation for journalists to focus on the "horse race" of campaigns has always existed, but few have seen their coverage as totally determined by the results of questionable polls than today's Virginia elections
The Fatal Lack of Republican Messaging on Healthcare
A flaw of Republican efforts to repeal Obamacare has been a lack of agreement on why they are doing so. With the most recent effort, there seems to have been a abandonment of even trying to claim healthcare will improve
The "Soft Brexit" myth: If "Hard Brexit" is off the table, the UK should withdraw Article 50
It is now clear that on Brexit there is no "deal" to be made. If British voters truly value immigration control more than economics they need to be prepared to walk. And if they value economics, "Soft Brexit" is a fraud
The Politics of TPP and Mexico City
By connecting killing TPP and the reinstatement of the Mexico City Policy on abortion, the Trump Adminstration handed orginized labor their greatest politican win in decades while ensuring foes would only talk abortion
Hillary's Health Non-Issue
Clinton's campaign has issues, but her health is the factor least likely to turn the election in Trump's favor.
America After Both Trump and Clinton
Forget the focus on where the Republican party goes after a Trump defeat. The party remains poised for 2018 gains, and only a presidential victory in 2020 may stand between it and the power wielded in Poland or Hungary.
Trump's Post-Convention Implosion: The real damage Trump is inflicting on the GOP is to deny it a message
The sheer randomness of the Trump campaign has hitherto innoculated the candidate against any individual offense. But his own heresies have prevented the wider party from finding any sort of message in 2016.
The boring Republican National Convention and the uneventful presidential campaign
One of the most interesting Presidential primaries in history has given way to one of the least eventful general election campaigns, something that Clinton has no reason to change, and likely will not until the debates.
American Brexit - Putting the Referendum in American Context
To understand how the British electorate could disregard the advice of the entire politicana and economic elite to vote to leave the EU, imagine if Donald Trump's immigration proposals were put up for a vote in America.
Trump, Clinton, Sanders, and the failure to learn anything so far this year
Clinton has a surplus of material with which to attack Trump. It is unclear why she thought it would be wise to begin by highlighting his lack of popularity among the DC Establishment.
The rotten three legs of the stool: Donald Trump didn't destroy American Conservatism, it was rotten to the core
Donald Trump's victory did not represent a defeat for American conservatism. By the time he arrived, it had already ideologically defeated itself. He found himself pushing on an open door.
Why Attacks on Trump's Foriegn Policy Views Backfire
Donald Trump's foes have repeatedly tried to make light of his ideological heresies. Nowhere has this been more blatent than with regard to his foriegn policy views, and nowhere have such efforts been less successful.
Thoughts on the February 25th Republican Debate
Last night Marco Rubio continued his strategy of endeavoring to place himself to Donald Trump's right, a strategy whose purpose is open to question even if it could credibly be carried out.
Post-Debate Thoughts: Forget Trump, Rubio Needs a Message and a 21st Century Campaign Team
Anyone wondering why Trump is winning the GOP primary could have turned into the last debate to be enlightened on why his opponents are losing. And why Rubio, despite accolades is not ready for primetime.
The Republican Nomination in October
The summer continued a trend of events that if properly exploited, a bit "if", may well make Marco Rubio one of the luckiest men in American politics.
Bernie Sanders' Demographic Challenge
Whatever his success in winning over online activists, Bernie Sanders faces the same obstacle as any left-wing insurgent in the Democratic party; winning over non-white voters who care more about winning in November.
The Third Stage of Grief: The Dukakis-esque Premise of the Walker Campaign
Republicans rushing to embrace Scott Walker's campaign are betting that 2008 and 2012 were outliers, and that the winning strategy in 2016 requires nothing further than to not run against Barack Obama.
Combined 2014 Senate Rankings and Guide
A complete, state by state guide to the 2014 US Midterm elections.
Five Thoughts About the Recent US Elections
Five reflections on the results of the 2012 elections.