Writings on Russian politics, relations with Ukraine, and the West.
Biden, the Politicization of Ukraine Aid, and Declining Support
The Biden Team have done well to champion aid to Ukraine, but the efforts to wield the issue as a weapon against Donald Trump and his supporters at home have contributed to declining public support for aid.
Putin's Nuclear Threats
Putin's nuclear threats should be taken for what they are. Expressions of frustration, not an indicator of immanent action.
How Biden’s Sanctions on Russian Energy Are Playing Right into Putin’s Hands
(Originally published on AMAC https://amac.us/how-bidens-sanctions-on-russian-energy-are-playing-right-into-putins-hands/)
The Only Solution to the War in Ukraine Is on the Battlefield
(Originally published by AMAC https://amac.us/the-only-solution-to-the-war-in-ukraine-is-on-the-battlefield/)
What is Vladimir Putin Really Up To?
For all the panic about a prospective Russian invasion of Ukraine, little time has been invested in trying to determine what Putin might hope to achieve.
The Biggest Nation-Building Failure of the Last 30 Years Isn’t Afghanistan—It’s Russia
With the benefit of three decades, the greatest failure of US foreign policy was not failing to nation build in Afghanistan or Iraq, but the refusal to invest even minimal capital in making Russia's transition a success
Hitting Trump on Russia cannot disguise the fact that Clinton does not have a Russia policy.
The attempt to turn the leak of emails from the Democratic National Committee into a debate over whether Trump is "soft" on Russia or Putin is exactly the sort of inflexible thinking that has ruined US policy in Syria.
Despite Cease-Fire Failures, American Weapons are not a Solution
Whatever policy is the right one to adopt regarding the Russo-Ukrainian conflict, the assumption that arming the Ukrainian military is either a simple task, or an alternative to direct interevention is absurd.
Putin's Verdun: While the Crimea Burns, Russia Prepares a Trap for the West in Estonia
Putin's strategic objectives likely have less to do with territorial ambitions in regions that are economically worthless, and more to do with endeavoring to discredit NATO as a viable protector of neghboring states.
Ukraine, the European Union, Economic Cycles and Political Weakness
The dynamics of the European response to Russian actions in the Ukraine are being driven by economic factors which leave EU leaders vulnerable domestically in the event of any policies which impose ecnomic costs
Ukraine Thoughts Part 1: On the Side of the Angels, Vladimir Putin's view of America and the World
In the eyes of Vladimir Putin, Russia has spent two decades on a policy of appeasement towards the United States, only to be met with duplicity and betrayal. Combined with a personal aversion to Obama it explains much.
Ukraine Thoughts Part 2: When You Play the Game of Princes You Win or You Die
Authoritarian states struggle to manage successions. Absent the ability to submit them to the electorate, they are fought informally at all levels of the state, and even the most loyal heir given time will become a theat